Men age like wine, women age like milk. – Unknown
There is a general consensus in the manosphere that young women in their early 20s hold all the power in the sexual marketplace, but that this changes as women start to age and men enter their peak in their 30s. This is easily observable by simply taking a look at the sexual and romantic dynamics around you. This observation also has significant acceptance in popular culture, as the well known quote above suggests. Nevertheless, it continues to recieve pushback in the media, especially from feminists and aging “independent” women who spent their 20s living rather irresponsibly.
I decided to quantify the average male’s and average female’s sexual market value (SMV) with age. My metric is simply the probability that the person will be getting laid at least twice a week. The amount of sex a person is able to have should be directly related to SMV. I used survey data from the National Survey of Sexual Helath and Behavior.
The survey respondents were broken up into men and women in their early 20s, late 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70+ (not shown).
The difference in SMV between men and women in their early 20s is statistically significant, as is the difference between men and women in their 30s, and the difference between women in their late 20s and women in their 30s.
This graph clearly demonstrates that women in their early 20s are achieving significantly more sexual success than their male counterparts. However, men are able to catch up in their late 20s, and the tables turn going into the 30s.
This has important implications for the sexual marketplace. It means that young women are the likely gatekeepers to both sex and committment, but that this trend reverses in the 30s.
My method of using frequency of sex as a proxy for SMV might be in doubt. To validate my proxy, it is useful to look at another data source. The online dating site OKCupid took a look at what percent of the opposite sex are looking for a person of a certain age.
OKCupid data should be taken with a grain of salt, as online daters are not representative of average people. Nevertheless, the similarity between the two graphs is striking, suggesting that both metrics are directly related to SMV.
Finally, as one last proxy, I decided to directly use the main measure of female SMV: female fecundability per menstrual cycle. However, while this measure is valid for measuring SMV for ONS, it does not adequately reflect relationship SMV. Relationship SMV has to take into account future value as well, so I calculated Present Value with a discount rate of 20%, compounded continuously. This corresponds to an average relationship duration of 5 years (i.e. 4-5 relationships by age 40, starting at age 15-20 – which seems roughly typical of most females). Here is the graph:
The relationship SMV (labelled LTR-SMV) clearly matches the other graphs. Furthermore, it gives us insight into teenage female SMV.
Rollo Tomassi at Rational Male has a differing graph of SMV based on his personal estimation. While his evaluation of female SMV with age matches both these graphs quite closely, the same cannot be sad of male SMV. However, the difference is that he is measuring potential SMV, rather than actual SMV, and he believes that older men who maintain a proper lifestyle can maximise their SMV to far higher levels than younger men can.
By age 36 the average man has reached his own relative SMV apex. It’s at this phase that his sexual / social / professional appeal has reached maturity. Assuming he’s maximized as much of his potential as possible, it’s at this stage that women’s hypergamous directives will find him the most acceptable for her long-term investment. He’s young enough to retain his physique in better part, but old enough to have attained social and professional maturity.
Thus, what we’re seeing here is the SMV that is actualized by the average male, whereas Rollo’s SMV is what a man could theoretically achieve with good inner game.
To sum up the data here though, women in their early 20s have the greatest sexual market value. Men’s market value rises as they enter their late 20s, matching that of their female peers, and continues to stay high into the 30s as female SMV declines significantly.